01 · HonestyWhy this page has no price target
A price prediction for a small-cap token is mostly a guess dressed up as analysis. Instead of guessing, we give you the inputs and the arithmetic, so you can judge any forecast you read elsewhere.
MET is a young token. It launched in October 2025, set its all-time high of about $0.69 on day one and fell to roughly $0.09 about eight months later — a drawdown of more than 85%. At the time of writing it trades a little under $0.30. Any model that would have predicted that path in advance would have needed to know how many airdrop recipients would sell, how fast memecoin volume would cool, and how the wider crypto market would behave. Nobody knew those things, and nobody knows the next year’s versions either.
What we can know is structural: how the supply is scheduled to grow, where protocol revenue comes from, what the staking program pays, and how big buybacks have been. Those facts don’t tell you where the price will be, but they tell you what has to be true for a given price to make sense.
02 · DriversFive things that move MET
MET’s price is the result of supply meeting demand. These five forces account for most of both.
Protocol fees and volume
Meteora earns a protocol share of trading fees — in standard DLMM pools 10% of each fee, more in launch pools. Higher volume means more protocol revenue, more USDC for stakers and more room for buybacks. This is the most fundamental driver and the one you can track daily.
Buybacks
Treasury-funded purchases add direct demand. They have been meaningful — about $13.7 million in total reported by early 2026 — but they are discretionary, irregular and not burned automatically. A pause in buybacks, as the community noticed in mid-2026, removes a source of demand.
Monthly unlocks
Around 7 million MET a month vests from the team and Meteora Reserve allocations if the release is even. That is the steady supply the market must absorb. Section four looks at it in detail.
Solana activity
Meteora lives on Solana. When SOL rises and on-chain trading picks up, Meteora volume tends to rise with it. When Solana DeFi cools, so does Meteora’s fee base. MET behaves like a leveraged bet on Solana trading activity.
Memecoin and launch cycles
A large share of Meteora’s fees comes from launch pools and new tokens — in the first half of 2026, Meteora said 75% of LP fees came from pools with external tokens. A memecoin boom lifts Meteora’s numbers fast; a bust drains them just as fast.
Notice how correlated drivers four and five are with driver one. In a hot market, fees, sentiment and buyback capacity all rise together; in a cold one, they fall together while unlocks keep coming. That asymmetry is the core of MET’s risk profile.
03 · FundamentalsFees, revenue and what the market pays for them
Meteora is a high-volume protocol. DeFiLlama shows about $99 billion of trading volume and roughly $389 million in fees over the trailing year at the time of writing. Most of those fees go to LPs. The protocol’s own revenue over the same period was about $47 million.
Divide market cap by revenue and you get a rough multiple of about 3.5×; using FDV, about 6×. Those are low multiples by the standards of many DeFi tokens, and bulls point to them. Bears answer that the trend matters more than the level: Meteora’s Q1 2026 holders’ report showed volume down 36% and fees down 51% versus the previous quarter, with $11.4 million of revenue. A cheap multiple on falling revenue can stay cheap.
There is also the question of how much of that revenue reaches MET holders. Referral Staking pays stakers from 10% of DLMM protocol fees, and buybacks come from the treasury at management’s discretion. The rest funds operations: the same report put the treasury at about $32.8 million with a monthly burn near $1.4 million. Revenue that pays salaries is good for the protocol’s survival, but it does not flow to the token directly. When you read a valuation argument, ask which slice of revenue it assumes MET captures.
04 · SupplyUnlock pressure, in numbers
The team holds 18% of supply and the Meteora Reserve 34%. Both were locked at TGE and vest over 72 months after a one-month cliff, from November 2025 to October 2031.
That is 520 million MET entering circulation over six years. At an even pace it is about 86 million a year and a little over 7 million a month. Circulating supply has grown from 480 million at TGE to roughly 565 million at the time of writing, consistent with that pace.
| MET price | Monthly unlock value | Yearly unlock value |
|---|---|---|
| $0.10 | ≈ $0.7M | ≈ $8.7M |
| $0.29 | ≈ $2.1M | ≈ $25M |
| $0.50 | ≈ $3.6M | ≈ $43M |
| $1.00 | ≈ $7.2M | ≈ $87M |
Now compare that with demand. The early-2026 buyback was $1 million for a whole quarter, while roughly $2 million a month of tokens was unlocking at prices near today’s. Not every unlocked token is sold — reserve tokens can fund incentives, and team members may hold — but the comparison shows why buybacks alone are unlikely to offset supply growth. Notice also that unlock pressure grows with price: the higher MET goes, the more dollar value each monthly tranche represents.
Staking is the other side of the ledger. In the first Referral Staking cycle about 76 million MET was staked, which is a meaningful share of the float. Staked tokens are not for sale while they are earning, and unstaking early forfeits the cycle’s rewards. If staking participation grows faster than unlocks, that is a genuine offset.
05 · ScenariosBull, base and bear: three frameworks
These are not predictions. Each describes a set of conditions and what they would tend to mean for MET. Your job is to decide which conditions you are seeing, not to pick the price you like best.
Volume fades, unlocks win
Solana trading cools, memecoin launches dry up and Meteora’s fees keep shrinking quarter on quarter. Buybacks stay paused. Monthly unlocks meet thin demand, and staking rewards per token fall, prompting unstaking. In this world, MET can revisit or undercut its previous low.
Steady fees, slow absorption
Volume stabilizes in a range, revenue roughly holds, and buybacks resume occasionally. Unlocks are absorbed slowly, so price drifts with the wider market. MET trades as a mid-cap DeFi token whose valuation moves with Solana sentiment more than with its own news.
A new launch cycle
A broad crypto upswing and a fresh wave of launches lift Meteora volume sharply. Protocol revenue grows, more fees flow to stakers, buybacks scale up and staking locks more of the float. Unlock pressure is outweighed by demand — though it grows in dollar terms as price rises.
A useful habit is to write down which signals would move you from one scenario to another — for example, two consecutive quarters of rising protocol revenue, or a clear increase in total MET staked. Then check those signals, rather than the price chart, every month.
06 · MathWhat any price implies
Before believing a target, translate it into a valuation. The calculator at the top of this page does this live; the table below uses roughly 565 million circulating and about 998 million total MET, the figures at the time of writing.
| MET price | Market cap (today’s float) | FDV | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.10 | ≈ $56M | ≈ $100M | Near the all-time low |
| $0.25 | ≈ $141M | ≈ $249M | Close to today’s range |
| $0.50 | ≈ $282M | ≈ $499M | Bottom of the launch pool range |
| ≈ $0.69 | ≈ $388M | ≈ $685M | All-time high |
| $1.00 | ≈ $565M | ≈ $998M | Above any price seen so far |
Two refinements make this sharper. First, a target a year or two out should use a larger float: with roughly 86 million MET unlocking each year, the same price produces a higher market cap later. Second, compare the implied valuation with revenue. At $1, MET’s FDV would be about 21 times the trailing-year protocol revenue — a multiple that only makes sense if revenue grows a lot. Plug your own price and supply numbers into the calculator to see how fast these figures move.
For context on MET’s launch, Meteora seeded initial liquidity in a single-sided DAMM v2 pool spanning $0.50 to $7.50, equivalent to $500 million to $7.5 billion FDV. The market traded close to the bottom of that range on day one and well below it since. Launch ranges describe where liquidity sits; they are not price targets.
07 · MethodHow to do your own research on MET
You don’t need a paid terminal to follow MET properly. A short monthly routine covers the essentials:
- Check Meteora’s 30-day fees and revenue on DeFiLlama and compare them with the previous month.
- Read circulating and total supply on CoinGecko and confirm the change matches the unlock schedule.
- Look up the Locked Team and Locked Meteora Reserve wallets on a Solana explorer to see what moved.
- Follow official channels for buyback updates, staking cycle results and holders’ reports.
- Watch Solana-wide DEX volume and launchpad activity, since they lead Meteora’s numbers.
- Note any change to Referral Staking parameters: the fee share, the reward cap or the cycle rules.
Be wary of forecasts that never mention unlocks, sites that quote prices to the cent several years ahead, and social posts that pair a target with a referral link. If you decide MET fits your plans, our guide to buying MET safely covers the route from SOL to the official token, including how to check the mint address.
